Analysts Expect Nintendo Switch To Outsell Xbox One, Consumers Disagree

Press for Nintendo's upcoming console is dominated by negative headlines. Just six weeks before the launch of the Nintendo Switch, it's earned a reputation for being too expensive, poorly explained, and held back by a small launch library. Doom and gloom has become prevalent across gaming forums and social media.

Although Nintendo is facing a tough battle of winning over consumers with its hybrid system, it did manage to invite enough demand to sell out pre-orders within hours. There's a sizable group of consumers who see enough of a value proposition to put down more than $300 toward what Nintendo hopes will be a breakthrough device.

With this divisive reception, many have jumped to the conclusion that the Switch might be "Nintendo's last console", or at the very least perform poorly in a way not too dissimilar to its predecessor, the Wii U, a console that has only sold 13.36 million units.

There is some hope for Nintendo, though. Research firm DFC Intelligence is predicting that the Switch will sell 40 million units by the end of 2020, just 3.8 years after its release.
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In a similar frame of time the PS4 has sold 53.4 million units, while the Xbox One has sold 25 million. If the Switch were to sell at the predicted pace, it would significantly outperform the Xbox One, securing a strong second-place foothold in the market, further prolonging Nintendo's representation in hardware.

DFC Intelligence head David Cole went on to describe the reason for the positive forecast, explaining, "The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo's poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative."​

One factor that many consumers may be taking too lightly is the Switch's handheld capability. Most attention has been focused on how it compares to the PS4 and Xbox One in terms of home console entertainment, in addition to its motion control capabilities. Its ability to be played on the go similar to the Nintendo 3DS is a distinct trait that could make it a more compelling device than it's being recognized as.

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Despite debuting to criticism, most of which was aimed at its high price point, the 3DS has managed to sell 61.57 million units in five years. That's a similar pace to what DFC Intelligence forecasts for the Switch.

While mobile gaming has absorbed a sizable portion of the audience that would normally invest in something like the 3DS or Switch, analysts believe there is still plenty of room for success. Due to this, analysts have suggested that Nintendo will want to focus marketing on the handheld side of the Switch where it's unlike anything on the market.

Ultimately, the Switch's one-of-a-kind nature makes it very difficult to predict its future. Consumers might be undecided and leaning toward skepticism, but there's a fair chance that its hybrid nature will propel it well beyond the milestones of the Xbox One. If so the gaming hardware industry will be seeing plenty of participation from Nintendo going into the future.

Source: Game Revolution